My Week 11 teaser picks include four teams in the Dolphins, 49ers, Chargers and Bills and comes in at -115 odds.
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NFL Week 11 Teaser Picks
In our Week 11 teaser, we ve bet down the Dolphins and 49ers to more manageable small favorites over the Raiders and Bucs, and flipped both the Chargers and Bills from favorites into underdogs.
I ve created this teaser by choosing alternate spreads at DraftKings, but you should be able to do so at most of the as well.
Raiders vs Dolphins
Pick: Dolphins -3.5
Miami went to Germany and lost 21-14 to the Chiefs. That s about par for the course with Miami. They re 0-3 versus teams with a winning record this season. In fact, they haven t beaten a team with a winning record since Week 3 of last year.
But Miami are the other bullies in this league. Much like Dallas, they also beat up on bad teams. And once again, despite winning two straight, the Raiders are another bad team.
Las Vegas is 5-5 and that is shocking to comprehend. They re 27th in PPG and have a -33 point-differential.
It s great to win two straight, but wins over the Jets and Giants are nothing to get excited about. The Jets game was 9-9 heading into the fourth so could ve gone either way and if Zach Wilson was a moderately capable starting quarterback, it surely would have been a Jets win.
Aidan O Connell isn t much better. He threw for only 153 yards versus the Jets. In his four games this season he has just two passing touchdowns.
The Raiders already have lopsided road losses by 28, 18 and 12 points this season. The Dolphins already have big home wins of 50, 15, 21 and 14 points. The make Miami heavy 13.5-point favorites but that may not be enough in this one.
Buccaneers vs 49ers
Pick: 49ers -2.5
The arrow looks to be pointing back up for the 49ers. They won five straight, lost three straight but came out of the bye last week with an impressive 34-3 road win over the previously 6-2 Jaguars. Brock Purdy threw for 296 yards and three touchdowns, Christian McCaffrey combined for 142 yards but saw his 17-game touchdown streak come to an end and George Kittle topped 100 yards receiving with 111 and 1 TD.
San Fran also held Trevor Lawrence to just 185 yards passing, zero TDs and forced him into two INTs. The 49ers dominated in nearly every statistical category and outgained the Jags 437 to 221 in total yards.
The Bucs won 20-3 at home last week but that came against the now 3-6 Titans and rookie QB Will Levis. It was also their only win in their past five games.
Both teams snapped losing streaks last week but it s the 49ers who will start a new winning streak Sunday.
Chargers vs Packers
Pick: Chargers +7.5
Some way, some how, Chargers games always come down to the wire no matter if it looks like a game they should win or lose. This game looks like a game they should or could win. At least the say so, making them 3-point road favorites in Lambeau.
In their nine games this season five have been decided by four points or less. The other four were wins of 7, 17 and 21, plus a road loss of 14 in Kansas City. So despite a 4-5 record SU and ATS, the Chargers hang around in every game.
The Packers are 3-6 SU and 4-5 ATS and they too have seen 5/9 games this season finish between four points or less. After an 18-point win over the Bears in Week 1, their other two wins were by 1 and 17 points. But that 17-point win has an asterisk as they got a Rams team playing with backup QB Brett Rypien.
That Rams win is also their only win in their past six games. It s also the only time they ve scored 20 or more points in their past five. They ve only scored 20 points twice in their past seven games. When you re averaging just 16.7 PPG in your last seven games it s hard to see Green Bay getting any sort of win, much less a win by over a touchdown. Which is what will be needed here in our teaser picks.
The only concern was a Keenan Allen injury who s dealing with a sprained AC joint from last week. However, he has said he ll be playing Sunday.
ZACH WILSON PICKED OFF š³
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Jets vs Bills
Pick: Bils +4.5
It s a rematch of Week 1 that saw the Jets pull the upset winning 22-16 in overtime off a Xavier Gibson 65-yard punt return touchdown. That, after Aaron Rodgers tore his Achilles on the fourth play of the game. That has thrust backup Zach Wilson into the starting role and it s been ugly to watch. The Jets are 30th in PPG, 29th in YPG and 30th in passing YPG.
Historically, the Jets haven t had much success over the Bills of late being just 2-5 SU in the past seven meetings. That one other win came by three points.
This season, the Jets have four wins, but only one in their past three. They also only have one touchdown in their past three games, with that one score coming in the first quarter against the Giants, a 13-10 Jets win. Since that time it s been nothing but field goals. With New York losing 27-6 to the Chargers and 16-12 to the Raiders. So it s been a combined 11 quarters since Gang Green has found the darkly shaded area on either side of the field.
Now Buffalo looks to be in turmoil themselves, sitting at just 5-5 and losers of three of four SU and riding an 0-6 ATS run. After losing 24-22 at home to Denver on MNF, they ll be coming into Week 11 off a short week and with a new OC. Ken Dorsey took the fall for the Bills struggles and Joe Brady steps in on an interim basis.
Both the Jets and Bills are tied with forcing 15 turnovers this season. The Bills have turned the ball over 18 times (second-most) while the Jets have turned it over 14, tied-12th most. Josh Allen is personally responsible for 11 of those 18 turnovers, leading the league with 11 INTs. He could be in for a long day versus the Jets who are sixth in yards allowed per game and seventh in points.
This game could get sloppy. The Bills at home should look to rally after Dorsey s dismissal and their Week 1 loss. But they re a hard group to trust right now. They do at least score, with 22, 18, 24 and 25 points in their last four. Manage anything close to that and even in a loss, it s hard to see Wilson and the Jets winning by more that four. Let s flip the Bills from -7 to +4.5 to round out our NFL Week 11 parlays and teasers.
Week 11 NFL Teaser picks: Dolphins -3.5 / 49ers -2.5 / Chargers +7.5 / Bills +4.5 (-115); risk 1 unit at DraftKings
Season record: 9-11, -3.28 units
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