As long as Sean McVay is bringing sexy back to the sideline, the Los Angeles Rams have a chance.
The Rams head coach entered 2023 as a point spread favorite in only two games, according to last year’s look-ahead lines, and walked out with 10 wins, a playoff appearance, and an 11-6-1 ATS record.
The expectations are greater in 2024. Los Angeles has a win total of 8.5 with the Over juiced and is a fave in 11 of 17 games, though six of those spreads have L.A. laying a field goal or less.
San Francisco is still the big bad wolf in the NFC West but another postseason showing is in the cards, given the Rams’ place in the betting markets and the effectiveness of McVay’s offense.
We try to write the script in Tinsel Town with my 2024 Los Angeles Rams NFL betting preview and NFL picks.
Los Angeles Rams odds
| Win Super Bowl | +3000 |
| Win conference | +1500 |
| Win division | +330 |
| Make playoffs | +100 |
| Over 8.5 wins | -155 |
| Under 8.5 wins | +125 |
Best futures bet: Second in NFC West (+137)
You could bet the Los Angeles Rams to make the postseason cut at EVEN money or get better odds on a result that likely means the same thing. Based on win total or look-ahead lines, Los Angeles is well ahead of Arizona and Seattle in the division.
Those preseason projections also have L.A. in play for a postseason ticket, fighting off the likes of Atlanta, Tampa Bay, and Chicago for one of the final playoff spots. The Rams have a much tougher slate than those clubs, so there’s more life betting them finishing runner-up to the 49ers once again.
Los Angeles Rams at a glance: Coaching and QB counts
Regardless of the depth chart, Los Angeles is going to have the edge at head coach in just about every game. The Rams also get the nod in QB matchups most weeks with Matt Stafford taking snaps. It’s up to the defense not to ruin everything else.
What will win bets: Running game
The Rams finished Top 10 in both EPA per handoff and success rate per run in 2023, finding a gem in RB Kyren Williams. McVay revamped his run scheme with more man blocking and bolstered that unit with big-time adds on the offensive line for 2024. Los Angeles also drafted another capable ball carrier in Michigan standout Blake Corum.
Not only does an effective rushing attack make life easy on Stafford and the pass game, but it also allows L.A. to control the clock and tempo. That means holding on to the ball longer and limiting the time a suspect defense can be exposed.
What will lose bets: Pass defense
As hinted above, the Rams stop unit isn’t great, most notably at slowing down opposing passers. Los Angeles lost a huge piece of the puzzle with the retirement of Aaron Donald, who was just as valuable drawing double teams as he was getting to rival QBs. Without pressure, the soft secondary is vulnerable.
We’ll see just how good (or bad) the Rams pass defense is in the opening five weeks of play. Los Angeles faces a bunch of high-octane offenses to begin 2024, taking on Detroit, San Francisco, Chicago, and Green Bay in that span.
Los Angeles Rams schedule + spot bet: Close calls in Cali
As mentioned, the Rams are favorites in 11 of their 17 games, according to look-ahead lines. Those same spreads have L.A. penciled in plenty of nail-biters, with 10 lines between a field goal (-3 to +3). Oddsmakers give McVay the benefit of the doubt but aren’t absolutely sure about this Rams team in 2024.
Los Angeles runs the gauntlet in the opening five games and McVay is a master of early-season preparation, boasting collective 23-12 SU and 19-14-2 ATS marks from Week 1 to Week 5 in his seven seasons in L.A.
The Rams’ competition lightens after a bye in Week 6, but the winter months put L.A. on the road five times in eight games between Week 9 and Week 16. McVay owns a 34-24 SU record and 30-25-3 ATS count on the road since 2021. Los Angeles was 5-3-1 ATS away from SoFi Stadium in 2023.
| 1 | Sunday, September 8 | @ Detroit |
| 2 | Sunday, September 15 | @ Arizona |
| 3 | Sunday, September 22 | vs. San Francisco |
| 4 | Sunday, September 29 | @ Chicago |
| 5 | Sunday, October 6 | vs. Green Bay |
| 6 | Bye Week | N/A |
| 7 | Sunday, October 20 | vs. Las Vegas |
| 8 | Thursday, October 24 | vs. Minnesota |
| 9 | Sunday, November 3 | @ Seattle |
| 10 | Monday, November 11 | vs. Miami |
| 11 | Sunday, November 17 | @ New England |
| 12 | Sunday, November 24 | vs. Philadelphia |
| 13 | Sunday, December 1 | @ New Orleans |
| 14 | Sunday, December 8 | vs. Buffalo |
| 15 | Thursday, December 12 | @ San Francisco |
| 16 | Sunday, December 22 | @ N.Y. Jets |
| 17 | Sunday, December 29 | vs. Arizona |
| 18 | Sunday, January 5 | vs. Seattle |
Spot bet: Week 16 @ N.Y. Jets (+3, 47.5)
The average temperature in East Rutherford sits between 32 and 40 degrees on December 22. That’s when the Rams visit the Jets in Week 16.
Not only is Los Angeles battling the elements in a 1 p.m. ET kickoff (10 a.m. PT back home) but also a tight schedule spot that has the team playing back-to-back road games and three road dates in four weeks.
The one positive in this spot is that Los Angeles will have a mini bye to prep for this cross-country trip after visiting San Francisco on Thursday in Week 15.
Stafford still scoring
- Awards
- TDs
- Yards
| To win MVP | +3000 |
| To win OPOY | +10000 |
| To lead NFL in passing TD | +2500 |
| To lead NFL in passing yards | +1400 |
| To lead NFL in INT | +2000 |
BACK TO TOP
| Over 22.5 passing TD | -110 |
| Under 22.5 passing TD | -110 |
| 25+ passing TD | +160 |
| 25+ passing TD | +800 |
BACK TO TOP
| Over 3,900.5 passing yards | -115 |
| Under 3,900.5 passing yards | -115 |
| 4,000+ passing yards | +110 |
| 4,500+ passing yards | +800 |
BACK TO TOP
Best prop: Over 22.5 pass TDs (-110)
Even with a nice balance of pass/run, McVay is going to put the ball in the hands of his veteran QB when it matters most. Stafford finished fourth in red-zone passing attempts in 2023, with 18 of his 24 total touchdown passes coming inside the opponents’ 20-yard line.
This year, Stafford has a stocked receiving corps with Cooper Kupp healthy and Puka Nacua coming off a historic rookie campaign. Demarcus Robinson and Tutu Atwell combined for seven TDs and RB Kyren Williams is a pass-catching threat as well.
Player projections for Stafford range from 26 to 27 touchdown throws from the 36-year-old and with a number of top-tier offenses on the dockets and a so-so defense in L.A., there could be several shootouts on tap for 2024.
Los Angeles Rams trend: Divisional road games
McVay is among the best barnstorming bets in the NFL when it comes to divisional road games.
During his time in Los Angeles, the Rams are 14-7 SU and 15-6 ATS when visiting an NFC West rival. That includes a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS count in last season’s divisional road outings.
Los Angeles Rams’ divisional road games
- Week 2 @ Arizona -2.5
- Week 9 @ Seattle -1.5
- Week 15 @ San Francisco +6.5
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Jason Logan
Senior Betting Analyst
In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst “JLo” has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike.
Since joining the Covers team back in 2005, he’s honed his handicapping skills to provide audiences with the most thorough insights, blending traditional capping methods with advanced modelling and predictive analysis. Jason has studied the ins and outs of the sports betting business, learning from some of the most successful gamblers in the industry and the biggest sportsbook operators on the planet.
He is under center for Covers during NFL season as our top NFL expert, taking the points in his infamous “NFL Underdogs” column and representing the Covers Community at the Super Bowl. While he lives for football season, Jason’s first love is basketball and that shows in his in-depth NBA, NCAA, and WNBA betting breakdowns.
On top of being a mainstay in media from coast to coast – WPIX, PHL17, Fox 5 San Diego, WGNO, TSN, SportsNet, ESPN Radio – he’s had his analysis featured in USA Today, MSNBC, ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, CBS, Bloomberg, the L.A. Times, the New York Times and other major publications. You can also find JLo stuffing all the top picks and predictions he can into 10 minutes as the host of Covers’ flagship podcast, The Sharp 600.
His best advice for bettors new and old is “Handicapping isn’t a ‘one size fits all’ process. The impact and importance of information varies from bet to bet. Treat each wager different than the last.”
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